Ukraine

I have been reading the discussions on X about the war between Russia and Ukraine with a mixture of bemusement and exasperation. The bemusement is because I genuinely do not care who wins the war or how it turns out. If I had to pick a side, I would side with Ukraine. I have no love for Vladimir Putin and Russia did invade Ukraine. Ultimately, however, I do not see how the outcome matters that much to American interests. I care about American interests, not Ukrainian or Russian. The only flag I am going to have in my X account is the American flag.

I am exasperated because the champions of Ukraine seem to be doing their best to turn me in favor of Russia. I do not appreciate being called a Putin stooge because I am concerned that my tax dollars are disappearing, without any accountability into a sinkhole of graft. I am not a Russophile because I do not wish to fund a stalemate that is only costing lives. I particularly do not care to have my president accused of being a Russian asset because he wants to end the killing.

Contrary to what the fans of Zelenskyy believe, the Russo-Ukraine War is not a repeat of World War 2. Putin is a dictator and a thug, but he is not Hitler. Germany under Adolf Hitler was a threat to all of Europe and ultimately the world. Russia under Putin is not. Putin’s Russia is not the superpower the Soviet Union was. Russia under Putin is a third-rate power with a bloodied military and a dysfunctional economy. Its population is in a demographic death spiral. Even if Russia managed to conquer all of Ukraine, it would not be in a position to invade anyone else. The idea that we must stop Putin in Ukraine before he threatens to conquer Europe is nonsense.

Allusions to World War 2 confuse more than they clarify. Not every war is World War 2. Actually, few, if any wars are like World War 2. Few conflicts represent the clear fight of good against evil as the fight against Nazi Germany did. In fact, not even World War 2 was a clear fight of good against evil. Stalin’s Soviet Union was just as evil, by any standard, as Hitler’s Germany. The allies were not always unambiguously the good guys.

The fact that Russia invaded Ukraine makes the Russians the aggressors in this war. However, the matter may be more complicated than it appears. This is usually the case. Few acts of aggression are entirely unprovoked. The ethnic history of the region is complex. The territory has been ruled by many nations.

The current borders of Ukraine were drawn at the beginning of the Soviet Union. The Communists ostensibly intended the Soviet Union to be a federation of free and equal ethnicities. Large ethnic groups like the Ukrainians got their own “independent” Republics. Smaller groups got “autonomous” districts. In practice, the Communists were careful to include minority groups within these Republics and districts. If anyone tried to become truly independent, instant civil war was the intended result. This is one reason why the break-up of the Soviet Union was so contentious.

Ukraine is no exception to these circumstances. The borders of Ukraine include significant populations of Russians, particularly in the east. The Russians might well feel they have a historical claim to those reasons. To be sure, the current borders were affirmed by both countries in 1991, but Putin may now feel Russia was badly served by that agreement. It also seems that Russians faced discrimination in Ukraine.

None of this justifies the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it may serve to explain it. We believe Putin is in the wrong, but Putin doesn’t. it may be unpalatable, but any peace agreement is going to have to address Russia’s grievances, real or imagined, in some form.

Some have placed the blame for the war on NATO’s eastward expansion. There is some truth to this assertion. Again, this does not justify Russian aggression, but it does explain it. The heartland of Russia does not have defensible borders. This is one of the reasons Russia is the largest country in the world.

Historically Russian leaders have expanded their realm in every direction to find defensible borders and to conquer adversaries before being conquered. Russia has largely succeeded in the South and East. In the West, where Russia has faced more sophisticated opponents, it remains vulnerable. After the collapse of the Mongols, Russia’s greatest challenges have come from the West. Russia has been invaded from the West many times. The Teutonic Knights, Sweden, Poland-Lithuania, France under Napoleon, Germany under the Kaiser, and Hitler all threatened Russia. Even a peaceable ruler might feel unease at NATO expanding toward Russian borders. A paranoid ex-KGB man might feel positively imperiled by such expansion. Yet the United States has promoted NATO expansion eastward with little consideration for Russian concerns.

By itself, this is not, in fact, a good argument against NATO’s eastward expansion. The countries bordering Russia have good reason to fear Russian aggression, considering Russia’s response to potential threats has often been to absorb them. It may well be in America’s interests to prevent Russia from expanding westward. My concern with NATO’s eastern expansion has been rather that the further east NATO expands, the less credible its deterrence against war.

NATO was founded to deter war with the Soviet Union. The Soviets knew the United States was willing to send men to die for France and West Germany, which is why they never attacked Western Europe. Putin has good reason to believe America would fight to defend Poland or Hungary. But would we really send our soldiers to die for Lithuania or Georgia? Putin has reason to doubt it. If he believes NATO’s security guarantees are hollow, he may decide to call our bluff. Expanding NATO into Russia’s backyard could increase the likelihood of a war we do not want. This is why Ukraine cannot be allowed to join NATO.

If this were a movie, the Russian-Ukraine War would end with the plucky Ukrainians driving the Russians out of their country and Putin being overthrown. This would be the ideal ending. Unfortunately, we do not live in that world. In the real world, Ukraine does not appear to be capable of defeating the Russians. It is in a war of attrition that it will likely lose because Russia has more men and a larger economy. Only the direct intervention of the United States would end the war in Ukraine’s favor and we are not willing to risk a war with Russia.

The best achievable outcome may be Ukraine ceding some territory to Russia in exchange for peace. This seems to be what President Trump is trying to accomplish, though it is hard to tell what Trump is doing. This is not an ideal solution. It is not even a good solution. It is never a good idea to reward aggression and there is a chance that a future Russian leader with a revived military will try to grab more land. It is the best we can do at the moment.