Donald Trump had a narrow escape yesterday. If the bullet that was shot at him had passed just a centimeter to the right, Trump would have been killed. As it was, he was very fortunate that only his ear was grazed. It is likely that the United States was also very lucky yesterday. The fallout arising from the assassination of a political candidate, especially a candidate as controversial and polarizing as Donald Trump is unimaginable. None of us would care to live through the repercussions of such a catastrophic event.
I do not believe a successful assassination would have led to a civil war, at least not immediately. It is possible that some Trump supporters might have attempted to avenge a murdered Trump with violence. Despite the media narrative, Trump supporters are largely peaceful and law-abiding. They are not political activists who invest their whole lives in the cause. They are regular people with jobs and families.
Still, civil wars do not simply happen. They often occur after a long series of events that lower the threshold that inhibits violence. One side commits a provocation, and then the other side ups the stakes by committing a worse affront. Soon the two sides are committing the worst atrocities against each other each fully assured it is in the right. This is a process at least as old as Thucydides’s frightening description of a civil war in Corcrya in his History of the Peloponnesian War. I can easily imagine a similar series of tit-for-tat actions leading to a devastating war.
I believe, however, that the greatest harm from a successful Trump assassination, would be more subtle. For some time now, an increasing number of Americans have felt alienated from the people who rule the country. This feeling of disaffection has been growing since at least the economic crisis of 2008 when hard-working Americans who followed the rules suffered while the irresponsible received aid because they were too big to fail. These feelings of alienation and disaffection grew during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ordinary people were locked down while the elites profited.
It was the feeling that the system was rigged against working Americans that inspired the TEA Party. The TEA Parties followed the rules. They peacefully petitioned the authorities for a redress of grievances, just as citizens are supposed to do. They even left the sites where they demonstrated cleaner than they found them. For their trouble, the TEA Partiers were ignored and abused by the media. The Democrats called them racist, fascist, and every other name they could think of. The Republicans used them to get elected and then dismissed them as fanatics.
Then the people turned to Donald Trump. Many among our elite believe that Trump is a figure like Jim Jones or Charles Manson. They think Trump’s supporters are a MAGA cult who blindly follow Trump. They feel that if only they can get rid of Trump, we will all wake up and go back to being good little plebs.
In fact, our elites have it backward. Donald Trump is not our cult leader. Donald Trump did not create the MAGA movement. He is, instead our standard bearer. He is our champion. If Donald Trump had not existed, we would have found another champion. If Donald Trump were to fall, someone else would take up his mantle. This is the danger.
If Donald Trump had been killed, no one would ever believe that it was not a hit organized by the “Deep State”. The people opposing Trump have made it very clear that they regard Trump as a serious threat to “Our Democracy”. Nothing any Democrat or leftist says, from President Biden, downwards, condemning the assassination could be considered sincere, considering they had been all but urging his assassination for years.
If Trump had been assassinated, the feelings of estrangement of many Americans would be complete. Any faith in the possibility of working within the system would vanish. I do not know if a nation where more than half the population believes its system is fundamentally illegitimate can long endure.
I said that if Trump fell, someone else would take his place. Despite all the talk of Trump being a dictator like Hitler, Trump has been notably conscientious about following the rules. Almost alone among recent Presidents, Trump has not tried to overrule the other branches of government. The next man to come may not be. His followers, having seen Trump murdered, may not be so inclined to respect the process. If Trump falls, we may get the dictator the left fears in Trump. Those leftists who have posted videos regretting the shooter missed should be careful what they wish for.
I must say that Donald Trump rose to the occasion magnificently. I do not think I am being cynical when I say that Trump’s showman’s instincts served him well. Trump knew just what to do to reassure his audience, and the nation, that all was well and he gained the admiration of the nation for his courage. Trump likely won the election with his quick thinking.
Finally, we ought to tone down the heated political rhetoric. By we, I mean the left. There are some overwrought voices on the right, to be sure, but much of the present hysteria is coming from the left. It is one thing to lampoon a political candidate for being too old. It is quite another to compare a political candidate to one of the worst men in history. There is nothing wrong with attacking a political platform. It is expected that a politician should be called a fool, a scoundrel, and a crook. It ought not to be expected that he should be called a potential dictator and a threat to the nation.
The problem with comparing any American political figure to Hitler, Stalin, or any other tyrant, aside from the fact that no American politician is anything like those villains, is that it raises the stakes. We can vote against a politician we disagree with or believe is incompetent. If he wins, there is always the next election. We may not be able to vote the next Hitler out of office. If we knew, with absolute certainty that a man would seize power and kill millions of people, we would want to stop him before he has the chance to gain power. In an overwrought political atmosphere, saying a man is Hitler is as good as calling for his assassination.
I have heard people on the right comparing Obama or Biden to a dictator. There is nothing on the right to compare with the eight-year campaign of hatred by the left against Donald Trump. The idea that Trump is a dire threat to “Our Democracy” has become mainstream in the Democratic Party. I have not heard anyone on the right calling for assassinations. There probably are conservatives who have done so, but they are marginal figures. I have heard many mainstream people on the left calling for assassinations.
This needs to stop. If it doesn’t stop we could talk ourselves into trouble no sane person wants.
David's Commonplace Book 