Two University of Colorado professors have devised a model to predict who will win the presidential election under current economic circumstances. The victor, they say, will be Republican Mitt Romney.
The model uses economic indicators from all 50 states to predict the race’s outcome. The forecast calls for Romney to win 320 electoral votes out of 538. It says Romney will also win virtually every state currently considered a swing state, including Colorado.
They warn the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50. Polls in many states, including Colorado, show a virtually deadlocked race.
Here is the map.
I think that they are being far too optimistic and that they should be tied up, gagged, and taken to an undisclosed location until after the election. the last thing the Republicans need right now is to start being overconfident. Romney and Ryan should fight as though they are ten points behind Obama because goodness knows he’ll be as vicious as he has to be to win this election.
- CU election study predicts Romney win (kdvr.com)
- Academic model: Romney will take 52.9% of the vote, 320 electoral votes (hotair.com)
- Electoral College model predicts Romney 2012 landslide (secularnewsdaily.com)
- CU forecasters predict a Romney presidency (gazette.com)
- Election model with 100% success rate predicts Romney victory (rawstory.com)