I saw this piece in the Washington Examiner last week and have been meaning to mention it. Essentially the argument is that if Obama wins only the states where he has a positive approval rating, he will be looking for a new home on January 20, 2013. Here is the map they provide.
Of course it is really to early to make any predictions, especially when it is not entirely certain who he will be running against. Yes, it looks like it will be Romney, but he hasn’t gotten the nomination yet. It looks like they got that map from 270towin. I’ve been playing around with the map and based on the past voting history of the states, I think it will be a whole lot harder for any republican to defeat Obama than this map indicates. In any case I hope no one in the RNC sees this. They do not need to be getting overconfident.
- Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss (tarpon.wordpress.com)
- President Obama’s re-election map looking more challenging (worldviewtonight.wordpress.com)
- US-2012 President: 48% Obama (D), 48% Romney (R)(Gallup 1/27-28) (huffingtonpost.com) One thing. National polls on how popular Obama vs a Republican is, are almost useless. American Presidential elections aren’t really national but 51 little elections. It is possible for a candidate to get a majority and still lose. (2000).
- Obama Crusin’ For A November Bruisin’? (outsidethebeltway.com)