270towin.com is an interesting website that I just found. They feature an interactive electoral map in which you can try out various combinations of states to see who might win the 2012 election. They include past voting data for each state and you can look at the electoral maps for every previous election.
I’ve haven’t followed the elections nearly closely enough to make any guesses myself, though I think Indiana will go Republican next year. We usually go red with only two recent exceptions, 1964 and 2008. Ohio should be interesting to watch. They have voted for the winner in every election since 1960 and can go either way. I think that it would be fair to say that if Obama can’t win Ohio, he won’t win at all. Florida is another state to watch since it could go either way.
Looking over the map, I think that Obama will have some trouble holding on to some of the states he won in 2008. Indiana is lost. Maybe also North Carolina and Virginia. It looks like an uphill battle for any Republican candidate though. I suppose a lot depends on the economy next year. Obviously if it improves Obama will have a better chance, but it takes time for any improvement to make itself felt and it may come too late for him. Just ask George H W Bush about that. The GDP started growing just in time for the election, so he lost and Clinton was lucky enough to take credit for the recovering economy.
- Polls show Obama several routes to re-election (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
- Obama Plots New Path to 270 Electoral Votes (politicalwire.com)
- Inside Obama’s re-election math (cnn.com)
- State Polls Show A Tough Electoral Map For Obama (outsidethebeltway.com) This last one is interesting because the writer makes use of state polls. Looking over the electoral map however I think that Obama is going to have to lose a lot of states he won in 2008 in order for the GOP to win. They can do it but they shouldn’t be overconfident.