The Second American Century?

One meme that has taken hold in the last decade or so is that the People’s Republic of China is poised to take over America’s role as the world’s leading nation. China’s economy has been growing at a fantastic rate and its GDP is expected to surpass America’s within ten years, probably sooner. Pundits have warned us that we are in danger of being left behind in the new Chinese Century, unless perhaps we adopt some of China’s authoritarian politics. Personally,  I have been rather skeptical of these claims. China has some serious structural problems that will need to be resolved soon or their economic growth will not be sustainable. Not least of these problems is a closed, authoritarian government that neither represents nor is accountable to the people of China. Until the Chinese government opens up and grants its people more freedom, China will not prosper.

With this in mind, I was very interested to read an article in the Telegraph that suggests that the Chinese miracle may be ending.

The world’s tallest tower should have been built by now. Officials said last year that the great edifice with 220 floors would be erected in three months flat in China’s inland city of Changsha by March, snatching the crown from Dubai’s Burj Khalifa.

The deadline has come and gone, yet the wasteland sits untouched. It now looks as if the fin d’époque project – using prefab blocs – may never be approved. Even China knows its limits.

Prime minister Li Keqiang has asked the State Council to clamp down on the excesses of the regions. Not before time. A top regulator says local government finances are “out of control”.

Mr Li aims to cut China’s economic growth to a safe speed limit of 7pc next year and rein in rampant investment – still a world record 49pc of GDP – before it traps the country in a boom-bust dynamic of frightening scale.

Vested interests are conspiring to stop him, launching a counter-attack from their power-base in the $6 trillion state industries. Even so, uber-growth is surely over.

One of the problems of planned economies is that resources are distributed according to the whims of political leaders rather than being subject to the kind of transparency and accountability that a free market provides. Somehow the pundits who worship authoritarian regimes are blissfully unaware of the corruption and misallocation of resources that are endemic to such regimes. They also tend to be not very honest or efficient when collecting economic statistics.

Mr Li complained in a US diplomatic cable released on WikiLeaks that Chinese GDP statistics are “man-made”, confiding to a US diplomat that he tracked electricity use, rail cargo, and bank loans to gauge growth. For a while, analysts use electricity data as a proxy for GDP but the commissars kept a step ahead by ordering power utilities to fiddle the figures.

The National Bureau of Statistics has since revealed that data collected by the regions overstates GDP by 10pc, though they have not acted on the insight. It is well-known why this goes on. The reward system of the Communist hierarchy has been geared to talking up growth, and officials gain kudos by lowering the stated “energy intensity” of their zone.

China’s Development Research Council (DRC) expects growth to drop to 6pc by 2020. It could be much lower. The US Conference Board says it will average 3.7pc from 2019-2025 as the ageing crisis hits. Michael Pettis from Beijing University thinks it is likely to slow to 3pc to 4pc over the next decade, deeming this entirely desirable if it comes from taming the runaway state enterprises.

If so, China’s growth may not be much higher than the new consensus estimate of 3pc for a reborn America, powered by its energy boom and the revival of the chemical, steel, glass, and paper industries.

All those charts showing China’s economy surging past the US by 2030, or 2025, or even 2017, will look very credulous. China may not surpass the US this century.

This is not good news for either China or the United States. We do not lose if China becomes wealthy. We do not win if China collapses. Worldwide economic liberalization and the prosperity it brings is in our long term interests.

As of last year US GDP was roughly $15.7 trillion, compared to $8 trillion for China on a nominal exchange rate basis, the measure that matters for gauging economic power.

China’s output is 75pc of US levels on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis but even on this measure the Chinese `sorpasso’ is looking less certain. Clyde Prestowitz, an arch US `declinist’ who has just thrown in the towel, says China may “never” catch the US on any relevant measure. That is a stretch, but not impossible on a forecastable horizon.

“Keep in mind the next time you are in China and find yourself choking on the foul air that the things making the air foul are counted as positives for GDP. If you adjust Chinese GDP for environmental degradation and for over-investment in things that will never be used, it falls in size by 30-50 per cent. Much of this would show up as non-performing loans in most economies but since such loans are never recognised in China, it will show up as slower growth in future years,” he said.

Environmental degradation is a serious problem in China. If they have anti-pollution laws, they are not being enforced.  China’s government seems to not care about the enormous costs in healthcare that the polluted environment will create. Meanwhile, while America has many problems, we seem to be doing quite well for a nation that is supposed to be in decline, despite the efforts of the current administration.

A new view is taking hold in elite circles that the banking crash in 2008 was a nasty shock for the US, but not a crippling blow to America’s creative enterprise. US governing institutions rose to the challenge. It was however a crippling blow to Europe, and a more subtle blow to China in all kinds of ways.

Richard Haass, president of the US Council of Foreign Relations, says the world may already be in the “second decade of another American century” without realising it.

On almost every key measure, including the fertility rate and high science, there is no credible challenger. Core US defence spending is still greater than that of the next 10 countries combined. “The American qualitative military edge will be around for a long, long time,” he said.

Mr Haass says America has managed its dominance in such a way that it has not brought about a containment alliance against it by threatened powers, and that is no small achievement. Like Wagner’s music, US diplomacy is better than it seems.

Yes, the US faces a debt hangover, but so does China after the state banks let rip with private loans keep the boom going through the downturn. Fitch Ratings has just downgraded China’s debt, warning that credit has jumped from 125pc to 200pc of GDP over the last four years, with mounting reliance on shadow banking that lets banks circumvent loan-to-deposit curbs. This is why George Soros has been warning that there could be a “run” on China’s state banking system akin to the Lehman bust.

Total credit has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion in four years, an increase equal to the entire US banking system.

America has moved in the opposite direction. Its banks now have loan-to-deposit ratio of around 0.7, and the biggest safety buffers in three decades. The Congressional Budget Office says US Treasury debt held by the public has jumped from 40pc to 73pc. This is the sort of damage normally seen in wars, but the US has recovered from bigger wars before, and from much higher debt levels. The CBO thinks the budget deficit will fall to 2.4pc by 2015. Growth will then whittle away the debt ratio for a few years.

There seems to be some sort of ceiling for developing countries that stops rapid economic growth once they have reached a certain size. It is as if the transition from a rapidly growing economy to a mature economy that continues to grow but at a reduced rate is a difficult one to achieve.

China’s premier Li is fighting a battle against those in the Politburo who delude themselves that the Lehman crisis validates China’s top down control. He gave his “unwavering report” last year to a joint DRC and World Bank report on the dangers of the “middle income trap”.

Dozens of states in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East have hit an invisible ceiling over the last fifty years, languishing in the trap with per capita incomes far behind the rare “breakout” stars, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The trap is the norm.

The report warned that China’s 30-year miracle is nearing exhaustion. The low-hanging fruit of state-driven industrialisation and reliance on cheap exports has already been picked. Stagnation looms unless Beijing embraces the free market and relaxes its suffocating grip over the economy. “Innovation at the technology frontier is quite different in nature from catching up technologically. It is not something that can be achieved through government planning,” it said.

Demographics are going to be a serious problem for China. Because of the one child policy, China is undergoing the sort of demographic transition usually seen in more developed countries, such as in Europe. The problem is that Europe may be able to afford to care for its aging population (but then again, they may not), but China’s aging population is going to be a significant burden for China over the remainder of this century.

Even if Mr Li succeeds in pulling off this second economic revolution – and we should salute him for trying – China’s growth rate is going to slow drastically. Demography will see to that.

The work force began to contract in absolute numbers last year, falling by 3.5 million. The International Monetary Fund says it will now go into “precipitous” decline, and much earlier than thought.

If you are wondering why police are still seizing pregnant women in Chinese cities and delivering them to clinics for forced abortions when they cannot pay the fine for breaching the one-child policy, you are not alone.

The IMF says the reserve army of peasants looking for work peaked at around 150m in 2010. The surplus will evaporate soon after 2020, the so-called Lewis Point. A decade later China will face a shortage of almost 140m workers. “This will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world.”

China’s ageing crisis is tracking Japan’s tale with a 20-year delay. China can expect to see the same decline in “marginal productivity” that has afflicted every other facing a rise in the old-age dependency ratio.

The authorities can of course keep the game going if they wish with another burst of credit, but risks are rising and the potency of debt is wearing off. The extra output created by each yuan of lending has halved in four years. Mr Li knows the game is turning dangerous.

A 2010 book by People’s Army Colonel Liu Mingfu – “China Dream: Great Power Thinking and Strategic Posture in the Post-American Era” – is still selling like hot cakes in China. Yet it already has a dated feel, a throwback to peak hubris.

China has everything to play for. With skill and a blast of freedom, it can take its rightful place at the forefront of world affairs. But nothing is foreordained.

I can only add to this that a more democratic and responsive government would have ended the one child policy years ago. Freedom is what China needs most. Unfortunately, freedom is what the Communist Party is least likely to give it.

Related articles

• China May Not Overtake America This Century After All (patdollard.com)
• UK Telegraph article China may not overtake America this century and other China articles (nextbigfuture.com)
• Some Doubt China Will Pass America as World’s Biggest Economy This Century (blackchristiannews.com)
• Let’s Let Asia Have This Century (salem-news.com)
• Could China Trigger New Economic Crisis? – OpEd (albanytribune.com) Yes.
• China MAY NOT overtake America this century… (telegraph.co.uk)
• Has China’s Economy Hit A Dead End? (amresolution.com)

What Hawking is Supporting

By participating in an academic boycott of Israel in support of the Palestinians, Stephen Hawking is sending an implied message of support to the Palestinian leadership, which in the Gaza Strip is composed of the terrorist group Hamas. It might be worthwhile for Professor Hawking to learn more about what sort of people he is siding with. First up is a report from Israel National News.

Hamas is lobbying for a stricter enforcement of Islamic law in Gaza – including provisions to cut off the hands of thieves, and execution of individuals who cheat on their spouses. A report in the Al-Hayat daily newspaper said that Hamas expects the new regulations to take effect in the coming months, after introduction of the legislation in the PA parliament.

Existing laws mete out the death penalty to individuals convicted of murder, spying, homosexuality, or selling land to Jews. The new legislation will expand the crimes for which individuals can be executed to include disloyalty to a spouse – having sexual relations outside the context of marriage. Other provisions of the law include chopping off the right hand of a thief (along with at least a seven year jail sentence), and lashes for a large number of “crimes,” including drinking alcoholic beverages and gambling. All the punishments are derived from sharia, Islamic law.

In addition, girls age 15 will be able to decide to marry on their own, without requiring permission from their parents. Individuals age ten and over are considered adults under the new legislation, and are subject to the full force of the law for offenses.

Hamas has a large majority in the PA parliament, with 74 of the 134 parliamentarians belonging to the Islamist party. Many of them belong to the fundamentalist Salafist movement, and they are behind the push for the new laws. While there is opposition in Hamas to the passage of the legislation at this point, it is expected to easily pass. Once it does, the laws will be extant in both Gaza and Palestinian Authority-controlled areas of Judea and Samaria, but it is not clear if they will be enforced there.

Selling land to Jews merits the death penalty. Who is the violator of human rights here? Next up is a report from ABC News.

A prominent Islamic scholar making a landmark visit to the Gaza Strip declared Thursday that Israel has no right to exist and voiced his support for rocket fire on Israel, giving a boost of legitimacy to the militant Islamist Hamas rulers of the Palestinian territory.

Yusuf al-Qaradawi is the latest of a few high profile figures visit Gaza, boosting the Hamas effort to break its international isolation. The U.S., EU and Israel brand Hamas a terror group, while the rival Fatah, which rules in the West Bank, enjoys Western backing.

Al-Qaradawi issued the strongest anti-Israel declarations of any of the visitors to date.

“This land has never once been a Jewish land. Palestine is for the Arab Islamic nation,” said al-Qaradawi, a Qatar-based cleric made famous by his popular TV show and widely respected in the Muslim world.

“The rockets made in Gaza are more powerful than the (Israeli) occupation’s rockets,” he added.

Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007 following several days of fighting against the rival Palestinian faction Fatah. Since then, Hamas militants have launched thousands of rockets into Israeli towns. Israel carried out two punishing military offensives, one in the winter of 2008-2009 and another late last year which killed the chief of the Hamas military wing.

Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005, but imposes a maritime blockade and controls the flow of goods coming from Israel into the territory. Gaza’s Hamas rulers and their backers still refer to Israel as “the occupation,” referring to Israel’s control of the West Bank and reflecting a belief that the presence of a Jewish state in the Middle East is an illegitimate occupation.

The Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority, which governs in the West Bank, condemned al-Qaradawi’s visit, saying his presence is cementing the rift between the two Palestinian factions.

Fatah and Hamas have tried to reconcile their differences in recent years but failed. Western leaders have demanded that a unified Fatah-Hamas government must recognize Israel and agree to enter peace negotiations. Hamas has refused.

How do you make peace with people who will not concede you have a right to exist? Please note that while the Fatah faction is not so openly calling for the destruction of Israel, that is their goal too. The difference between the two factions is that the leadership of Fatah has enough sense to downplay their genocidal ambitions, at least before Western audiences.

And finally here is a report from Palestinian Media Watch.

wo senior Palestinian Authority officials praised the use of violence against Israel last week.

Senior PA official Sultan Abu Al-Einein expressed his open support for the murderer who killed Evyatar Borovsky, an Israeli who was stabbed to death by Palestinian terrorist Salam Al-Zaghal while he was waiting for a ride.

Abu Al-Einein, who was until recently an advisor holding the rank of minister to PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and who was subsequently appointed Head of the Palestinian Council for NGO Affairs by Abbas, honored the murderer:

“We salute the heroic fighter, the self-sacrificing Salam Al-Zaghal.”

Abu Al-Einein also praised the murderer and his killing with the words:

“He insisted on defending his honor, so he went against the settler and killed him. Blessings to the breast that nursed Salam Al-Zaghal.”

The audience applauded and whistled at this statement.

Last week, Palestinian Media Watch reported that only hours after the murder, the administrator of Fatah’s official Facebook page glorified Al-Zaghal as a “hero.”

Another senior PA official, Jibril Rajoub, also praised the use of violence against Israel. During an interview on a Lebanese TV channel, the host referred to “the negotiations game” with Israel, and Rajoub expressed the view that negotiations are held because the Palestinians lack military strength:

“I swear that if we had a nuke, we’d have used it this very morning.”

Jibril Rajoub is the Deputy Secretary of the Fatah Central Committee and Chairman of the PA Olympic Committee. The interview was broadcast on the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV channel and also published on Rajoub’s Facebook page on May 2, 2013.

Senior PA officials often state that avoiding violent confrontation or war with Israel is only temporarily, due to the PA’s inability to take on such a conflict. They claim that negotiations with Israel are the right course of action for now, because conditions are not right for violence.

Mahmoud Abbas himself has also said on several occasions that if the Arab nations would begin a war against Israel, “Palestine” would join them.

The following is an excerpt of senior PA official Sultan Abu Al-Einein’s interview, in which he praises a murderer as a “heroic fighter”:

“Praise Allah who honored us and designated us to be in Ribat (religious war defending or liberating “Islamic” land) until Judgment Day, until the dawn of freedom and national independence will shine [on us]… On behalf of all those who fell as Martyrs or were wounded, we salute the heroic fighter, the self-sacrificing Salam Al-Zaghal from the Tulkarem District, whose honor and pride would not let him remain silent, consenting to the settlers’ aggression against him in his vehicle. He insisted on defending his honor, so he went against the settler and killed him. Blessings to the breast that nursed Salam Al-Zaghal.”

[Palestine Live TV, May 2, 2013]

The following is the translation of senior PA official Jibril Rajoub’s interview, in which he swears that the PA would use nuclear weapons against Israel, if it possessed them:

Lebanese TV host: “The American [John Kerry] came to the PA. They are talking about reviving negotiations, about getting back to the table with the Israelis… Will you go back to the negotiations game?”
Jibril Rajoub: “There is no going back to negotiations unless the source of authority is the international resolutions, with a time frame and with the freezing of all unilateral Israeli steps: Jerusalem, the fence, settlements and prisoners.”
Host: “You’ve heard Israel’s refusal.”
Jibril Rajoub: “That doesn’t matter. Listen. We as yet don’t have a nuke, but I swear that if we had a nuke, we’d have used it this very morning.”

It surely must be obvious to any disinterested observer that the Palestinians do not want peace with Israel. The only way that they will agree to peace with Israel is if they are convinced that they cannot win by violent means. When well meaning but idiotic Westerners support them and condemn Israel, the Palestinians are encouraged to believe that they will prevail. The Palestinians will never bargain in good faith if they think they can destroy Israel. By supporting an academic boycott of Israel, Stephen Hawking is encouraging terrorists to keep up their campaign of terror and is costing the lives of people on both sides of the struggle.

All of the above links came courtesy of Jihad Watch, a website Stephen Hawking ought to read. There is a lot more there.

 

Related articles

• Palestinian leaders tell their own people what they really mean (legalinsurrection.com)
• PA Official: ‘If We Had Nuke, We’d Have Used It This Morning’ (israelnationalnews.com)
• Islamic cleric in Gaza rejects Israel’s existence (stripes.com)
• Stephen Hawking joins academic boycott of Israel in solidarity with Palestinians (rawstory.com)
• New PA Laws: Cutting Off Thieves’ Hands, Lashes for Drinking (iamnotashamedofthegospelofchrist.com)
• Stephen Hawking joins academic boycott of Israel (worldbulletin.net)
• Furore deepens over Stephen Hawking’s Israel boycott (guardian.co.uk)

Stephen Hawking is an Idiot

I do not care what his accomplishments in physics might be. By supporting a boycott of Israeli academics he is either woefully misinformed about the true situation in Palestine and thus an idiot, or he is a prize jackass. Here is the story in Yahoo News.

Jackass (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

British physicist Stephen Hawking has dropped plans to attend a major international conference in Israel in June, citing his belief that he should respect a Palestinian call to boycott contacts with Israeli academics.

The University of Cambridge released a statement Wednesday indicating that Hawking had told the Israelis last week that he would not be attending “based on advice from Palestinian academics that he should respect the boycott.”

University officials said earlier in the day they had “previously understood” that Hawking’s decision was based solely on health concerns — he is 71 and has severe disabilities — but had now been told otherwise by Hawking’s office.

The decision means that one of the world’s most famous scientists has joined a boycott organized to protest Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. He is one of the most prominent figures to endorse the strategy, designed to bring pressure on the Israeli government.

The scientist had earlier agreed to attend the Israeli Presidential Conference, hosted by President Shimon Peres, in late June, but has now changed his mind. The theme of the meeting is “Facing Tomorrow 2013.”

Tim Holt, acting communications director at the University of Cambridge, said early in the day that Hawking’s decision was based strictly on health concerns. Hawking suffers from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.

“For health reasons, his doctors said he should not be flying at the moment so he’s decided not to attend,” said Holt. “He is 71 years old. He’s fine, but he has to be sensible about what he can do.”

The university later changed its position after consulting Hawking’s office. The change was made after Israeli officials insisted Hawking had cited the boycott when informing organizers that he would not attend.

The Israeli Presidential Conference, now in its fifth year, brings together statesmen and leading experts in various disciplines to discuss ways to address the world’s problems. The goal, organizers say, is to identify challenges and propose solutions.

Hawking’s endorsement of the boycott prompted an angry response from organizers. Conference Chairman Israel Maimon said Hawking’s decision was “unjustifiable and wrong.”

“The academic boycott against Israel is in our view outrageous and improper, certainly for someone for whom the spirit of liberty lies at the basis of his human and academic mission,” Maimon said, calling the imposition of a boycott incompatible with open, democratic dialogue.

He noted that former world leaders including Bill Clinton, Mikhail Gorbachev and Tony Blair plan to attend the three-day meeting that begins on June 18.

The boycott campaign is led by Palestinians, Israeli leftists and other supporters who oppose Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians and are attuned to the power of celebrity in this age.

It has had some success, deterring a string of famous entertainers from performing. Elvis Costello and the Pixies canceled concerts, as well as the British dance band Klaxon and the Gorillaz Sound System. Israel has also faced occasional boycotts of its academics, unions and in some cases commercial products.

Hawking’s decision was hailed by the British Committee for the Universities of Palestine as support for its goal of severing academics’ connections with Israel.

“This is his independent decision to respect the boycott, based upon his knowledge of Palestine, and on the unanimous advice of his own academic contacts there,” the committee said on its website.

In 1967, Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem, territories the Palestinians seek for a state. Two decades of intermittent negotiations on the terms of such a state, in between bouts of violence, have failed to produce results. In the meantime, Israel has settled more than half a million of its citizens in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, while restricting Palestinian trade and movement.

Notice that the article says that Israel “captured” the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem without bothering to mention that was after Israel’s neighbors Jordan, Syria and Egypt decided to attack and destroy Israel. They also fail to mention that Israel has offered many concessions to the Palestinians including 95% of what they wanted at the 2000 Camp David Summit, only to have the Palestinians reject the offer. It is very difficult to make peace with people who are determined to destroy you.

But, as for Hawking, he has decided to side with barbarians and terrorists against the only civilized and democratic state in the Middle East. Israel has more scientists and academics than all the rest of the Arab countries put together. I mean real scientists and not ignorant fools who are trying to harvest the power of Jinn. Israel has contributed more to human happiness than many larger countries have. I would be hard put to name any real discovery or accomplishment that the Muslim world has contributed in the last thousand years.

If it is a question about human rights, Hawking would do well to compare the situation of religious minorities in Israel, and even the situation in Palestine, with the worsening plight of ethnic and religious minorities everywhere else in the Middle East, not to mention the horrid treatment of women that prevails throughout the region.

This decision by Stephen Hawking is contemptible and ill thought out. I have lost most of any respect I might have had towards Hawking.

Related articles

• Stephen Hawking ‘backs Israel boycott’ (aljazeera.com) Terrorists around the world cheer.
• Stephen Hawking Won’t Attend Israeli Conference (abcnews.go.com)
• Stephen Hawking Boycott: Physicist Will Not Attend Israel Conference (theepochtimes.com)
• Stephen Hawking backs pro-Palestine boycott of Israel by snubbing summit (metro.co.uk)
• Stephen Hawking to Boycott Physics, Israeli Arabs (jewishtelepathicagency.com)Note that there are Arab academics in Israel. How many Jews are allowed to live in Arab countries?
• Stephen Hawking pulls out of Israeli academic conference citing Palestinian boycott (news.nationalpost.com)
• Hawking joins academic boycott of Israel (thehindu.com)

They Want Sharia

It has long been an article of faith among many in the West and especially among our learned elites that the vast majority of Muslims are essentially moderate people who want freedom and democracy just as the people of the West do. Terrorists such as Osama bin Ladin and the Tsarnaev brothers who held to be part of a tiny minority of extremists who twist and distort the peaceful teachings of Islam. The problem with this view is that it is simply not true. While the great majority of Muslims are not terrorists and would prefer to live in peace with their neighbors, the truth is that the doctrines of al-Qaeda or the Muslim Brotherhood are a lot closer to the mainstream of Islamic teachings than many in the West would like to admit.

There is a recent public opinion poll of the citizens of various Muslim countries which suggests that a large number of people in these countries would prefer to live under Islamic law or Sharia. Here is the story in Yahoo News which was originally published by Reuters.

Large majorities in the Muslim world want the Islamic legal and moral code of sharia as the official law in their countries, but they disagree on what it includes and who should be subject to it, an extensive new survey says.

Suicide bombing was mostly rejected In the study by the Washington-based Pew Forum, but it won 40 percent support in the Palestinian territories, 39 percent in Afghanistan, 29 percent in Eygpt and 26 percent in Bangladesh.

Three-quarters of respondents said abortion is morally wrong and 80 percent or more rejected homosexuality and sex outside of marriage.

Over three-quarters of Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia want sharia courts to decide family law issues such as divorce and property disputes, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life said on Tuesday.

Views on punishments such as chopping off thieves’ hands or decreeing death for apostates is more evenly divided in much of the Islamic world, although more than three-quarters of Muslims in South Asia say they are justified.

To be fair, it is likely that many of those who support the implementation of Sharia may not realize some of the implications of such rules. It is likely that after a decade or so of living under Sharia, many would come to detest it.

Those punishments have helped make sharia controversial in some non-Islamic countries, where some critics say radical Muslims want to impose it on Western societies, but the survey shows views in Muslim countries are far from monolithic.

“Muslims are not equally comfortable with all aspects of sharia,” the study said. “Most do not believe it should be applied to non-Muslims.”

Unlike codified Western law, sharia is a loosely defined set of moral and legal guidelines based on the Koran, the sayings of Prophet Mohammad (hadith) and Muslim traditions. Its rules and advice cover everything from prayers to personal hygiene.

Amaney Jamal, a Princeton University political scientist who was special adviser for the project, said Muslims in poor and repressive societies tended to identify sharia with basic Islamic values such as equality and social justice.

“In those societies, you tend to see significant support for sharia,” she told journalists on a conference call. By contrast, Muslims who have lived under “narrow if not rigid” Islamic systems were less supportive of sharia as the official law.

Unlike Western law codes which leave a wide space of private actions, Islamic law tends to be totalitarian, in the sense that even private actions and beliefs are covered by the law. If a Man’s home is his castle in the West, under Sharia his home and his life belongs to Allah.

More than four-fifths of the 38,000 Muslims interviewed in 39 countries said non-Muslims in their countries could practice their faith freely and that this was good.

This view was strongest in South Asia, where 97 percent of Bangladeshis and 96 percent of Pakistanis agreed, while the lowest Middle Eastern result was 77 percent in Egypt.

The survey polled only Muslims and not minorities. In several Muslim countries, embattled Christian minorities say they cannot practice their faith freely and are subject to discrimination and physical attacks.

The survey produced mixed results on questions relating to the relationship between politics and Islam.

Democracy wins slight majorities in key Middle Eastern states – 54 percent in Iraq, 55 percent in Egypt – and falls to 29 percent in Pakistan. By contrast, it stands at 81 percent in Lebanon, 75 percent in Tunisia and 70 percent in Bangladesh.

In most countries surveyed, Muslims were more worried about Islamist militancy than any other form of religious violence.

I am sure that if a pollster had asked Whites in the Jim Crow South whether the Blacks were content with their lot, the great majority of Whites would have answered, sincerely, yes. No where in the Islamic world are Christians free to worship as they please. At best they can hope for a grudging tolerance. I have to wonder just what the respondents mean when they talk about democracy. It is no good if they are thinking democracy is a way to vote away other people’s’ rights and liberty.  Freedom is more than just having regular elections, even if they are free and honest. In order for a people to be truly free, they have to learn to respect the rights of others. No one wants to be oppressed. The trick is not wanting to oppress other people, especially the despised minority. So far, the human rights situation throughout the Middle East does not lend much support for the idea that the people of that region really understand this. The article ends on a slightly optimistic note.

Views on whether women should decide themselves if they should wear a headscarf vary greatly, from 89 percent in Tunisia and 79 percent in Indonesia saying yes and 45 percent in Iraq and 30 percent in Afghanistan saying no.

Majorities from 74 percent in Lebanon to 96 percent in Malaysia said wives should always obey their husbands.

Only a minority saw Sunni-Shi’ite tensions as a very big problem, ranging from 38 percent in Lebanon and 34 percent in Pakistan to 23 percent in Iraq and 14 percent in Turkey.

Conflict with other religions loomed larger, with 68 percent in Lebanon saying it was a big problem, 65 percent in Tunisia, 60 percent in Nigeria and 57 percent in Pakistan.

A section of the survey on U.S. Muslims noted they “sometimes more closely resemble other Americans than they do Muslims around the world”. Only about half say their closest friends are Muslim, compared to 95 percent of Muslims globally.

So American Muslims are assimilating. That’s good as far as it goes. I hope there is never any sort of religious revival among our Muslim population.

Related articles

• Muslims worldwide want Sharia (campusravegist.wordpress.com)
• Most Muslims want sharia law, split on interpretation (worldbulletin.net)
• Mideast Muslims Favor Sharia Law (personalliberty.com)
• The Muslim world wants Sharia as law of land: survey (ramyabdeljabbar.wordpress.com)
• Pew Research study: Most Muslims want sharia law – Digital Journal – DigitalJournal.com (digitaljournal.com)
• Most Muslims Want To Live Under Sharia Law (sweetness-light.com)
• Huge Flaw in Pew Survey on Muslim Views about Sharia (nationalreview.com) The poll does not include Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Sudan.

Parents of the Bombers

I suppose if my children were involved in some crime or outrage I would be mortified and embarrassed. It is even possible that I would deny my children could possibly in involved. So, the reaction of the Tsarnaev brothers parents is understandable. I read the story on Yahoo news.

The parents of the two main suspects in the Boston bombings said on Thursday their sons had been framed and accused U.S. authorities of killing the older brother to put on a display.

Anzor Tsarnaev, the father, banged the table in anger as he announced plans to go from Russia to the United States to “find out the truth” and Zubeidat Tsarnaeva, the mother, said she had wanted to scream when she heard of her elder son’s death.

She denied Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, had made contact with Islamist militants during a stay in Russia last year and said she was considering giving up her U.S. citizenship.

“I wanted to scream to the whole world, ‘What did you do?’ What have you done with my son? He was alive. Why did you need to kill him? Why didn’t you send him to Guantanamo or whatever? Why? Why?,” she shouted at a new conference, her voice cracking.

“It is some kind of show, spectacle,” she said, adding that she wanted her son buried in Russia, where he has roots.

Pounding the table with his fists, Anzor Tsarnaev said: “I am going to the United States. I want to say that I am going there to see my son, to bury the older one. I don’t have any bad intentions. I don’t plan to blow up anything.”

“I am not angry at anyone. I want to go find out the truth,” said Anzor, his eyes hidden behind dark glasses.

He said he would go as soon as possible but that he had not yet bought a plane ticket.

If you shoot at the police, they do tend to shoot back. In any case, Tamerlan might have been captured alive if his brother hadn’t run over him and dragged him forty feet.

I wonder how sincere they are, though. Have they looked at their son’s Amazon.com wishlist? It includes such hits as:

How to Make Driver’s Licenses and Other ID on Your Home Computer

The I.D. Forger: Homemade Birth Certificates & ​Other Documents Explained

Secrets Of A Back Alley ID Man: Fake Id Construction Techniques Of The Underground

The Lone Wolf And the Bear: Three Centuries of Chechen Defiance of Russian Rule

Organized Crime: AN INSIDE GUIDE TO THE WORLD’S MOST SUCCESSFUL INDUSTRY

It wasn’t a secret that their sons were becoming more devout in their faith, and not necessarily in a good way.

They said, however, that Tamerlan had frequented a mosque which is considered by local police to be a hotbed of radical Islamist ideas.

Investigators are looking into whether Tamerlan was influenced by the local Islamist militants, who are waging an insurgency against Russian rule of the North Caucasus.

Zubeidat was questioned for almost seven hours by Russia’s security services on Wednesday on her son’s movements during his time in Dagestan.

On another occasion, when the FBI came to question Tsarnaev in the United States in 2011, Zubeidat said they had quizzed her about his religious views.

“They told me, ‘Don’t you think that Tamerlan is being a little extreme about religion? Do you think he would think about organizing something, some kind of … terrorism?,” she said.

Despite the visit, she said: “I really did not see any reason for worry.”

Anzor and Zubeidat said Tamerlan had been influenced by an ethnic Armenian emigre from Azerbaijan whom they knew only by the name of Misha.

“Tamerlan very much respected him for him knowing Islam… He was (saying) like, ‘Mom, look at him, he prays, he is fasting all the time’,” said Zubeidat, who describes herself as a devout Muslim and said she was inspired to become more religious by the man called Misha.

The family said they had met the man in the Russian-speaking diaspora in Boston in 2007.

U.S. officials have said Tamerlan became more radical from around 2009.

“I wasn’t praying until he (Misha) prayed in our house, so I just got really ashamed that I am not praying, being a Muslim, being born a Muslim … while Misha, who converted, was praying,” Zubeidat said.

Maybe she should have worried.

 

Related articles

• Older Suspect in Bombing Swayed by Muslim Mentor (bloomberg.com)
• Suspects’ mom says bombing possibly fake (wptv.com)
• Boston suspects’ mother shares doubts over marathon attack (cnn.com)
• Boston bombers’ father to travel to US to bury Tamerlan Tsarnaev (telegraph.co.uk)
• Boston Suspects’ Mother Insists Sons Innocent (wibw.com)
• Photos: Tsarnaeva family deals with fallout after Boston Marathon bombings (photos.denverpost.com)

 

Saudi Arabia Deports Irresistible Men

And on a lighter note, I may have to postpone my trip to Saudi Arabia. Evidently they do not want handsome men who Saudi women could fall for in their kingdom. At least that is what this story in the Telegraph says.

The delegates from the United Arab Emirates were in attendance at the Jenadrivah Heritage & Culture Festival in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, when religious police officers stormed the stand and evicted the men because “they are too handsome,” according to the Arabic language newspaper, Elaph.

“A festival official said the three Emiratis were taken out on the grounds they are too handsome and that the Commission [for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vices] members feared female visitors could fall for them,” Elaph reported.

The UAE released an official statement indicating that the religious police were anxious over the unexpected presence of an unnamed female artist in the pavilion.

“Her visit to the UAE stand was a coincidence as it was not included in the programme which we had already provided to the festival’s management,” Saeed Al Kaabi, head of the UAE delegation to the festival, said in a statement.

It was not clear if the woman’s presence was related to the decision to evict the “handsome” Emirati men.

Following the incident, Elaph said the festival’s management took swift action to deport the trio back to Abu Dhabi, capital of the Emirates.

With a majority Sunni Muslim population, Saudi Arabia is a deeply religious and ultraconservative society which forbids women from interacting with unrelated males and refuses to accord them with the same rights as men.

With my irresistible good looks, they probably wouldn’t even let me into the country.

Obviously I am kidding, both about traveling to Saudi Arabia and about my looks.

Related articles

• Saudi Arabia deports ‘irresistible’ men deemed ‘too handsome’ to women (telegraph.co.uk)
• Saudis deport three men for being too handsome (theprovince.com)
• ‘Female visitors could fall for them’: Saudis deport three men for being ‘too handsome’ (news.nationalpost.com)
• Men Deemed ‘Too Handsome’ Deported from Saudi Arabia for Fear They Would Be Irresistible to Women (gawker.com)
• PV companies must understand Saudi Arabia in order to beat competitors (prweb.com) It would be very hard for anyone rational to understand that country.

Warsaw Uprising

Seventy years ago today the Jews trapped in the Warsaw ghetto rose up against their Nazi tormenters in a rebellion that they knew could only end in defeat. Since their knew they were bound for the death camps, they made the decision to die fighting rather than passively submit to torture and death. In a world in which evil, all too often has its way, it is good to remember great acts of heroism. I read about the commemoration ceremonies they are holding in Poland from Yahoo News.

Sirens wailed and church bells tolled in Warsaw as largely Roman Catholic Poland paid homage Friday to the Jewish fighters who rose up 70 years ago against German Nazi forces in the Warsaw ghetto uprising.

The mournful sounds marked the start of state ceremonies that were led by Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski at the iconic Monument to the Ghetto Heroes. The president was joined by officials from Poland, Israel and elsewhere as well as a survivor of the fighting, Simha Rotem, to honor the first large-scale rebellion against the Germans during World War II.

About 750 Jews with few arms and no military training made their opening attack on April 19, 1943, on a much larger and well-equipped German force. The attack came after most of the nearly half a million inhabitants of the ghetto had already been sent to die at Treblinka.

The insurgency came when it was clear the Nazis were about to send the remaining residents of the ghetto to die too. The revolt was crushed the following month, and the ghetto was razed to the ground, most of its residents killed.

“We knew that the end would be the same for everyone. The thought of waging an uprising was dictated by our determination. We wanted to choose the kind of death we would die,” said Rotem, an 88-year-old who is among a tiny number of surviving fighters and was the key figure at the ceremony. “But to this day I have doubts as to whether we had the right to carry out the uprising and shorten the lives of people by a day, a week, or two weeks. No one gave us that right and I have to live with my doubts.”

Rotem’s uncertainty is in stark contrast to how the world remembers the revolt. Though a clear military defeat, it is hailed as a moral victory for the Jewish fighters, who refused to go without a fight to the gas chambers. It is prominently commemorated in Israel, part of a never-again ethos that stresses the importance of self-defense.

“The Nazi Germans made a hell on earth of the ghetto,” Komorowski said in a speech. “Persecuting the Jews appealed to the lowest of human instincts.”

During the ceremonies, Komorowski bestowed one of the country’s highest honors on Rotem — the Grand Cross of the Order of the Rebirth of Poland. Later the two of them, along with Israeli Education Minister Shai Piron and Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, a Polish Auschwitz survivor who helped rescue Jews during the war, walked side-by-side to the monument and bowed before it as soldiers laid a wreath for them.

To a military drum, other dignitaries followed them in paying their respects at the dark memorial to suffering and struggle, including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, members of Poland’s Jewish community and U.S. Ambassador Stephen Mull along with an American survivor of the Warsaw ghetto, Estelle Laughlin.

Poland’s chief rabbi and a cantor also recited mournful Hebrew prayers as they were joined by three Polish army chaplains, one Catholic, one Eastern Orthodox and one Protestant. Psalm 130, which starts, “Out of the depths I cry to you, O Lord! …” was recited in Hebrew and Polish.

Though the Warsaw ghetto uprising is well-known worldwide, it hasn’t received the same level of attention among Poles, for whom a separate city-wide revolt in 1944 plays a much more critical role in national memory.

Authorities, however, have been trying to change this and to convince Poles that the ghetto uprising is a key moment not just in Jewish but also in broader Polish history.

Newspaper articles in recent days have stressed the Polishness of the Jewish revolt, while officials have encouraged Warsaw residents to get involved in a month of commemorations that ends on May 16. That is the day in 1943 when the Nazis blew up the Great Synagogue, a jewel of 19th-century architecture, to symbolize their crushing of the revolt.

I don’t want to be too hard on the Poles since they suffered almost as much as the Jews at the hands of the Nazis, but I get the impression that exterminating the Jews was the one item on the Nazi agenda that many Poles would have agreed with. That makes the heroism of any Poles who helped the Jews all the more remarkable since they would have been dealing with the anti-Semitism of their neighbors as much as the Nazi authorities.

I suppose that the Ghetto uprising made little or no difference to the German war effort.  It did take the Germans a whole month to crush the revolt and maybe the units used to destroy the ghetto might have made some difference on the Russian front. We will never know. At least these Jews taught the world that the Jews could learn to fight and that oppressed peoples need not passively submit to tyranny.

 

Related articles

• Poland marks 70th anniversary of Jewish Warsaw Ghetto uprising against Nazis (euronews.com)
• Warsaw marks 70th anniversary of ghetto uprising (timesofisrael.com)
• To sirens and church bells, Poland marks 70th anniversary of Warsaw ghetto uprising (theglobeandmail.com)
• Warsaw marks 70 years since uprising in ghetto (seattletimes.com)
• Warsaw Marks 70 Years Since Uprising in Ghetto (abcnews.go.com)
• Warsaw marks 70 years since uprising in ghetto (kansascity.com)
• Warsaw Ghetto Uprising: 70th anniversary marked in Poland (telegraph.co.uk)
• Remembering those who fought back (thejc.com)
• The ultimate emblem of resistance: the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising (timesofisrael.com)
• Warsaw ghetto survivor carries out 70-year-old mission (timesofisrael.com)

 

Advice from Rand Paul

Rand Paul has written a column for rare.us which I think is full of good advice for the Republicans, that is if they would like to start winning elections again.

 Many are saying that the Republican Party must change if we want to remain a viable national party. The advice from some is to become less conservative. These critics believe that the GOP will somehow do better if we become more like the Democratic Party. But why would anyone vote for a lesser version of the Democrats when you can vote for the real thing? It doesn’t make sense and defeats the entire purpose of having two parties.

It is true that Republicans will continue to lose if changes are not made. But some of those changes will require us to become more conservative, especially when it comes to economics. Other changes might not neatly fit into what we currently think of as left or right.

The Republicans will never be able to outspend or outpander the Democrats and they shouldn’t even try. One party, at least, ought to stand for fiscal sanity and keeping the country together instead of trying to divide Americans along racial and class lines.

The GOP is supposed to be the party of limited government but it has not done a very good job of proving it. If Republicans can become the party of balanced budgets and fiscal responsibility, we can appeal to millions from all walks of life who genuinely fear for the burden we’re placing on our children.

“Limited government” doesn’t mean no government. It means $2.6 trillion worth of government—the amount of revenue we currently bring in. Over the past number of years, Americans have had to learn to live within their means. Government must do the same and Republicans should be the party that shows how it can be done.

The Republicans have talked a lot about limited government and balanced budgets but have certainly not acted on these beliefs whenever they have had control of the government in recent years. I hope that with the rise of the Tea Party this will change.

We need a strong national defense, but perhaps this does not mean having an overly aggressive foreign policy that puts American troops all over the globe, all the time. After nearly a decade in Iraq and well over a decade in Afghanistan, no one wants to now see a misguided intervention in Syria or Iran, as some from both parties have suggested. A foreign policy that does not try to police the world, does not try to dole out welfare to the world through foreign aid, and that recognizes fiscal limits will be better for our military, our national security and the Republican Party.

The problem here is that somebody is going to have to act as the world’s policeman and like it or not, we are the only ones with the capacity to do so. Besides, would anyone prefer to live in a world dominated by China, or Russia, or the UN? Of course, we do not have to intervene everywhere there is a problem. We can and should pick our battles and there are some situations we should just stay out of. The civil war in Syria is a good example. We probably are going to have to intervene to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. It would have been a whole lot easier, and cheaper to take determined (not necessarily military) action against the Iranians years ago, but our leaders have just kept putting the problem off until it has grown.

We need to recognize that the rising generation does not want people put in jail for unduly long sentences for non-violent offenses. No one supports the use of drugs or encourages that kind of behavior, but too many lives have been ruined due to our unfair and unjust mandatory minimum laws. It doesn’t make sense to put someone who has made one mistake in prison with rapists and murderers—sometimes for sentences longer than rapists and murderers. Under our current laws, both George W. Bush and Barack Obama could have been served jail time due to their youthful drug use, and once released from jail, these two men wouldn’t have been employable, much less capable of winning the presidency.

Mandatory minimum sentencing also disproportionately affects those lacking the means to fight back, particularly minorities. This needs to change and Republicans should lead the way.

I am not for legalizing drugs but I think it is obvious to everyone that the War on Drugs has not been very effective. There is a real opportunity for the Republicans to develop effective and just policies here. I should add that many of the more egregious government violations of civil rights have been done in the name of the war on drugs and perhaps we need to seek a better balance between minimizing drug use and respecting civil liberties.

The GOP needs to be the party that embraces immigration while also demanding strong border security. Nobody wants a party that is perceived as wanting to round-up people. We can move the ball forward by offering an immigration policy that humanely deals with the 12 million undocumented immigrants already in the country, but puts the proper security measures in place so that we don’t have to keep revisiting this issue every few decades.

The problem I have with illegal immigrants is that they are here illegally. I do not like the idea of rewarding people who break the law with citizenship. A lot of the discussion on this issue seems to be fairly muddled on that one point. You may call these people “undocumented” but the simple fact of the matter is that they are in violation of the law. If immigration laws are too harsh or if they are unjust, than the laws should be changed, by an act of Congress. As long as the present laws are in place they should be enforced, and the Executive does not, or ought not, have the options of simply deciding not to enforce laws it finds inconvenient.

Fiscal conservatism, a more prudent foreign policy, ending mandatory minimums and immigration reform coupled with border security are but a few issues Republicans can lead on if we want to build the necessary coalitions that will allow us to remain a governing national party.

If we’re going to start winning on the West Coast and in New England, and if we’re going to attract the young, we must change. If we don’t evolve and adapt, the Republican Party will die.

The GOP of old, stale and moss-covered, is largely responsible for our party’s current quandary. Only a new breed of Republican—bold, innovative and dedicated to liberty—can get us out of it.

I hope the Republicans will listen to what Senator Paul has to say. Being the stupid party, they likely will not.

Related articles

• Sen. Rand Paul says he’s “considering” running for president in 2016 (redalertpolitics.com)
• Is Rand Paul Really Considering a Presidential Run in 2016? (repressedpress.com)
• Rand Paul Pitches GOP Version of Minimalist Government to African-Americans (usnews.com)
• Rand Paul: GOP faces ‘daunting task’ with black voters (thegrio.com)
• Rand Paul lands TIME’s ’100 Most Influential’ cover (theblaze.com)
• Inroads: How Rand Paul Represents a Libertarian Opportunity (define-liberty.com)

RIP Margaret Thatcher

Margaret Thatcher, one of Britain’s greatest Prime Ministers died of a stroke today. She took control of a nation in decline and turned things around, at least temporarily, giving Britain one last moment of glory. Unfortunately none of her successors have seen fit to continue her policies, even her own Conservative Party, and so Britain is on the way down again. On the international stage, she was a stalwart supporter of freedom and a friend to America. She, along with President Reagan was instrumental in winning the Cold War and ending Soviet tyranny. She will be greatly missed.

 

Related articles

• Margaret Thatcher Dies (fox17online.com)
• Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher dead after stroke (pix11.com)
• Margaret Thatcher Dies of Stroke at 87 (theepochtimes.com)
• Margaret Thatcher dies following stroke – BBC News (bbc.co.uk)
• Rest in peace: Margaret Thatcher has died following a stroke; Update: Twitter mourns (twitchy.com)

 

They’re Very Similar

President Obama urges the Palestinians and Israelis to make peace in this video.

There has been a lot of derision of the president for his implied comparison between the Israeli-Palestine conflict and Canadian-American relations. I understand the point he is trying to make, and it is not as dumb as his critics believe. Relations between the United States and Canada are amicable now, and we have the longest undefended border in the world, but this was not always the case. In fact, the United States invaded Canada, then a British possession, during the War of 1812. There were several naval battles fought on the Great Lakes. There was some support for war against Britain in 1844 over the boundaries of the Oregon territory but President James Polk wisely chose negotiation over fighting a war against Canada at the same time as the Mexican War. British support of the Confederacy during the Civil War also caused some trouble and there even some who proposed a war against Britain as a means of drawing the North and South back together. Even as recently as the beginning of the twentieth, when relations with Britain had much improved, war with Canada was at least conceivable, if only infinitesimally likely. The good relations between Canada and the United States were far from inevitable and history could have turned out differently, if the two nations had not had so much in common, including a willingness to settle their differences peacefully.

All the same though, US-Canadian relations are hardly a model for resolving the conflict between Israel and its neighbors. America, Canada and Britain have similar cultures. We all speak the same language and have the same sort of values. This does not guarantee peace, look at Korea, or the Balkans, but it helps. By contrast, Israel is an outpost of Western civilization. It’s neighbors, including the Palestinians have a historical heritage very different from that of the West. Their languages may be related, but their cultures couldn’t be more disparate. Even worse, the Arabs want to destroy Israel. There is not really much for the two sides to talk about.

I know President Obama would like to earn his Nobel Peace Prize by negotiating some grand plan for peace in the Middle East. Most presidents seem to have had that sort of ambition, which seems to encourage wishful thinking. I think we just need to recognize that there is not going to be peace in that region until the Arabs decide they no longer want to destroy Israel and kill all the Jews. Considering that Muslims have hated Jews since the time of Mohammed, I don’t imagine peace is going to happen anytime soon.

Related articles

• ‘What is America’s leadership thinking?’ Palin blasts Obama for comparing Israeli-Palestinian relations to US-Canada (twitchy.com)
• Come Again? Obama Compares Israeli-Palestinian Conflict to US-Canada Relations (ijreview.com)
• Obama to Israel: Compromise for peace (news.yahoo.com) What is there to compromise over? They want to destroy Israel, the Israelis don’t want to be destroyed.
• O Stirs It Up (telegraph.co.uk)
• Who is James Polk? (periodicpresidents.com)